Bangladesh – Play the Strategy Game to become a Regional Power in South Asia.

Pushing or Pulling towards the center of the board. Getting some notice or it’s a threat from China as Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming said on Monday that China-Bangladesh bilateral ties would be substantially damaged if Dhaka engaged with Quad, according to the media report. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal security grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India, are now seeking to seduce Bangladesh to be part of their Indo-Pacific strategy tie.

As an important partner of China, Bangladesh signed up to the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is a member of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. One of the crucial aims of both US' and India's Indo-Pacific visions is to counter the BRI with a bid to contain China's development. Roping in Bangladesh can help them achieve this goal.

Another Quad member, Japan, is engaged in many areas of cooperation with Bangladesh as well. For one, Bangladesh's market is appealing to Japan. Despite its small size, Bangladesh has a population of more than 160 million. For another, out of geopolitical considerations, Tokyo hopes to counter the BRI. Japan has proposed the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure and attempted to sign infrastructure deals with Bangladesh. Tokyo, together with New Delhi and Washington, are really the ones behind the scenes that instigated Dhaka to call off the Sonadia deep-sea port project that was constructed by China and turn to cooperate with Japan on another similar program, reported by the media in 2016.

As a response, Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Moment told local English daily Dhaka Post that, "None of us were invited to the Quad, nor did we show interest." If what Chinese Ambassador said is the fact, this will be good. But given that some media outlets, including local ones, had covered Li's remarks, the news that Bangladesh had been invited to join the Quad was possibly not be groundless. Bangladesh either had talked with Quad members over this issue or aim to launch a trial balloon to see China's reaction.

 

Bangladesh holds a good balance between major powers. It actively cooperates with China on economics. At the same time, Dhaka hopes such cooperation will thus bring more countries to invest in Bangladesh. But it also hopes a competition over it remains at the economic level instead of at the political level. Bangladesh raises its value to the regional powers in the Geopolitical prospective. The strategy should secure the higher economic value from the international partners as well as stable the position from Underdog to Regional Power.

INDIAN OPPOSITION WINS INTERMS OF TEESTA

Manmohan Singh arrived in Dhaka on Tuesday on a two-day trip, accompanied by the minister for external affairs and four chief ministers of the bordering states. He is reciprocating the visit of prime minister Sheikh Hasina to India in January last year.

Indian water resources minister Pawan Kumar Bansal and West-Bengal chief minister, who were in the list of the entourage of the Indian prime minister, did not come as Mamata was apparently testy over the proposed modalities of the Teesta water sharing.

The prime ministers had one-on-one meeting before and after the official talks on the Day-1 of his tour. After the meeting, both the prime ministers signed framework agreement on cooperation for development, and witnessed signing of one protocol, addendum of one protocol and eight memoranda of understanding.

However, following strong opposition from West-Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, Bangladesh and India could not sign the agreements on Teesta and Feni water sharing. Manmohan in his speech said, "Our common rivers need not be sources of discord, instead can become the harbingers of prosperity to both the countries. "We have decided to continue discussions to reach a mutually acceptable, fair and amicable arrangement for the sharing of the waters of Teesta and Feni rivers."

International affairs adviser to the prime minister Gowher Rizvi, one of the key coordinators of the Indian premier's visit, said some consultations were needed in India before the agreement was signed. "We have agreed in principle on the modalities of the agreement and are hopeful of signing the deal within couple of months," he said. When asked if Bangladesh sought any explanation from India, he said, "There is no need to seek explanation. We understand the reality." "We had landmark success in the visit and now it is time to celebrate," he said.

Indian foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai in Delhi on Monday said any agreement between New Delhi and Dhaka on sharing of the Teesta water would have to be acceptable to the West Bengal government as well as to Bangladesh. He, however, said the proposed deal on sharing of the water of Feni between Bangladesh and India was on track. But he was non-committal on the deal on Teesta. "Water is a very sensitive issue. Nothing is done or will be done without the consent of the state government," Mathai told journalists, in response to a query whether the deal on Teesta would be signed during prime minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Dhaka.

The government signed a protocol to implement the land boundary agreement signed in 1974. Manmohan said, "We have signed a Protocol to the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) of 1974. With this, both the countries have now demarcated the entire land boundary as well as resolved the issue of status of the enclaves and adversely possessed areas." He continued, "As the prime minister Sheikh Hasina just announced, we have worked out 24-hour access to the enclaves of Dahagram-Angarpota through the Tin Bigha Corridor."

Hasina earlier in her speech said "I would like to announce that from now on, our people in Dahagram and Angorpota will have 24-hour unfettered movement through the Tin Bigha Corridor." The land boundary problems have persisted since 1947, and to resolve the issue, a joint headcount was conducted recently that found about 51,000 people live in these enclaves – 34,000 in Bangladesh and 17,000 in India. Bangladesh has 111 Indian enclaves and India houses 51 Bangladeshi enclaves.

Dhaka and Delhi did not exchange any 'letter' on transit to pave the way for smooth movement of goods through Bangladesh. Asked if Bangladesh did not agree on transit as India did not sign water agreement, Gowher Rizvi said, "Our relationship is based on trust. We don't believe in such relationship where if you don't get anything you will reciprocate by not giving other things."

NO FROM INDIAN OPPOSITION FOR THE TEESTA TREATY.

The AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary said that people of Assam would "oppose tooth and nail" any move by India's central government in New Delhi to give away even "an inch of land" of Bangladesh, even if such an initiative was endorsed by the State Government headed by Gogoi.

The AGP – a regional party – staged a protest demonstration in Guwahati on Monday, denouncing the purported move by New Delhi to strike a swap-deal with Dhaka to resolve the issues related land boundary. Patowary said that any such a move on the part of the governments in the centre and the state could lead to serious turmoil in Assam.

Even the BJP – the principal opposition party in Indian parliament – strongly opposed New Delhi's purported plan to strike an exchange agreement with Dhaka to settle the issues related to enclaves and adversely possessed land between Bangladesh and India. Pradyut Bora, the general secretary of the BJP's state unit in Assam, said that the party would oppose the government's plan both legally and politically.

With purported illegal migration from Bangladesh to India and alleged encroachment of Indian territories by people of Bangladesh along the Bangladesh-India border being a major political issue in Assam, both the AGP and BJP are likely to step up their offensives against the Congress governments in the state and centre, protesting their moves to settle the issues between New Delhi and Dhaka by a give-and-take formula.

There are 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh with 17,160 acres of land and a population of about 37000 people. India on the other hand has 51 Bangladeshi enclaves with 7110 acres of land and a population of about 14000 people.

Altogether 1880.81 acres of Indian land are in adverse possession of Bangladesh. India adversely possesses 1165.49 acres of land of Bangladesh.

During prime minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to New Delhi in Jan 2010, Bangladesh and India agreed to comprehensively address all outstanding land boundary issues, keeping in view the spirit of the 1974 Land Boundary Agreement. The Bangladesh-India Joint Boundary Working Group has since been trying to work out a swap deal to resolve the border dispute once and for all.

Teesta flows through Sikkim and northern part of West Bengal before entering Bangladesh.

As West Bengal is also largely dependent on Teesta for irrigation and hydropower generation, India's central government has been factoring in the views of the state government while negotiating the interim treaty with Bangladesh for sharing of the water of the river.

River Surma needs Dredging.

Bangladesh will talk with India on dredging of the Surma River at the Joint Rivers Commission meeting starting Thursday in New Delhi. A 16-strong Bangladesh delegation, headed by water resources minister Ramesh Chandra Sen, reached New Delhi on Wednesday to attend the 37th ministerial-level meeting of the Joint Rivers Commission.Peace Like a River

Water Development Board officials say water flows in the Surma river comes down to almost nothing in the dry season after 1990s as a big shoal has emerged in the no-man's land in Amalshid where Indian Barak Iiver enters Bangladesh into two rivers—Surma and Kushiara.Surma Bengali News Weekly

They say removal of the shoal by dredging has not got the importance it deserved. "We will discuss the Teesta's water sharing. Also, we will raise this issue of Surma's dredging at the JRC meeting," water resources secretary Shaikh Wahid-uz-Zaaman, one of the delegation members.Where the River Ends

Water Development Board's superintendent engineer (in Sylhet) Syed Afsan Ali told on Monday that if the shoal was removed, more water in the Surma will be available.The RiverRiver Songs of Bangladesh

"It should be dredged," he said. The board officials said they could not go for the dredging as the shoal is in the no-man's land. "It is up to the JRC to settle this," a top official of the board told preferring anonymity. "Without the JRC's approval, we cannot go for dredging in the border," he said.RiverRiver Songs of Bangladesh

The Water Development Board records say water availability in the Surma river comes down drastically in the dry season: from November to March. Officials say the river's highest flow in July-August reaches about 1,500 cumec per second, but it falls to about five to six cumec per second in March or April every year.Tales From The River Brahmaputra [Tibet * India * Bangladesh]

In 2008, the Surma's highest and lowest flow figures for the dry season were recorded in March. The lowest flow was 6.05 cumec per second while the highest was just 15 cumec per second. The highest flow in the rainy season the same year was 1456 cumec per second on July 21.Politics of Himalayan River Waters: An Analysis of the River Water Issues of Nepal, India and Bangladesh (Nirala Series 32)