As the FY2026-27 National Budget approaches, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) is navigating a period of intense uncertainty, balancing a fragile recovery against a tightening macroeconomic environment.
The market has been characterized
by sharp fluctuations. In early April 2026, the DSEX bounced back by 1.82%,
reaching 5,272 points after a prolonged 17-day downturn that erased
approximately Tk 29,500 crore in market capitalization. This pre-budget uptick
was largely driven by the government's intervention to stabilize domestic fuel
prices amid a severe global gasoline shortage. Although this move offered a
reprieve for industrial sectors, the broader economic foundation remains under
pressure.
Key Economic Constraints
The DSE currently faces a
"triple threat" of rising costs and supply constraints:
Sticky Inflation: With inflation
hovering near 9.13%, the central bank has kept the policy rate at 10%, which
has significantly restricted the liquidity required for market expansion.
The Energy Crisis: Disruptions in
global supply chains have increased fuel import costs by roughly 40%, placing
additional stress on foreign exchange reserves.
Productivity Slump: National GDP
growth cooled to 3.03% in the most recent quarter, as gas shortages impacted
manufacturing output.
Investors are approaching the
June budget with cautious optimism. While "bargain hunting" in
undervalued blue-chip stocks has picked up, the market's trajectory depends on
whether upcoming fiscal policies can address energy dependency and inflation
without stalling industrial growth.
